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代表论文介绍1                              

 

《基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型研究框架》(左其亭,韩淑颖,韩春辉,罗增良. 水利水电技术,2019)

 

  水资源适应性利用是一种适应环境变化且保障水系统良性循环的水资源利用方式,研究面向环境变化的水资源适应性利用对保障地区水安全,实现人水和谐具有重要意义。将遥感技术与和谐论理论方法相结合,建立了新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型的研究框架,该模型是以人水和谐度最大为目标,以水资源-经济社会-生态环境多维临界阈值及互馈关系方程、水循环方程等边界条件为约束的面向水资源适应性利用的多维临界和谐配置-调控模型。为了实现该模型的应用,需开展基于遥感的新疆水资源-经济社会-生态环境互馈关系及演变规律、水资源适应性变化机理与适应性利用原理、水资源适应性利用理论应用规则及量化方法、基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型、塔里木河流域水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型应用研究的相关工作。围绕上述内容,阐述了实现该模型的3个关键问题及具体的研究方法,包括遥感技术在配置调控模型中的应用;水资源适应性利用规则定量化及如何嵌入模型中;水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型如何构建。研究成果为水资源适应性利用理论方法及应用研究提供参考。

 

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代表论文介绍2                 

 

《新疆水资源−经济社会−生态环境时空演变特征分析》(李佳伟, 左其亭*,马军霞. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020)

 

  理清水资源-经济社会-生态环境的时空演变特征是地区谋求自身发展与实现人与自然和谐平衡的首要前提。本文利用历史和监测资料结合遥感解译提取的水资源、经济社会和生态环境数据,从水资源、经济社会、生态环境三方面选代表性指标,采用MK检验、滑动T检验等多种统计学方法,分析1960-2018年新疆水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统要素时空演变特征。结果表明,受人类活动影响,新疆水资源-经济社会-生态环境时空演变具有一定一致性趋势。根据各子系统要素长序列演变特征,可进一步研究新疆水资源-经济社会-生态环境系统演变的互馈机理,为新疆长期规划提供借鉴。

 

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代表论文介绍3                 

 

《新疆水资源时空变化特征及适应性利用战略研究》(左其亭,李佳伟,马军霞,吴青松,郭佳航,李倩文. 水资源保护, 2021)

 

  水资源系统易受环境变化的影响,对不同气候模式下的新疆水资源演变趋势进行分析,并结合对水资源适应性利用机理的理解,提出变化环境下新疆水资源适应性利用对策及战略框架。研究认为,未来一段时期内新疆降水呈增加趋势,不同气候模式下多年平均降水量分别较基准期增加15.6%、20.8%和22.2%,一定程度导致水资源量变化;在此条件下进行水资源适应性利用战略研究,提出了工程支撑、政策支撑及科技支撑三大支撑体系,旨在为实现新疆水资源合理开发利用、经济社会可持续发展、生态环境保护及人水和谐目标提供借鉴。

 

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代表论文介绍4                 

 

《Assessment of regional-scale water resources carrying capacity based on fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making and scenario simulation》(Qiting Zuo, Jiahang Guo, Junxia Ma, Guotao Cui, Rongxue Yang, Lei Yu*, Ecological Indicators, 2021)

       This study associates the fuzzy multi-attribute decision making (FMADM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to assess the water resources carrying capacity and to tackle uncertain problems of multiple subsystems during its evaluation. For this purpose, the water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system is proposed, and the AHP-FMADM is used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of 15 areas in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2004 to 2017. Several scenarios with different weight-allocation modes are also conducted to study the influence of decision-makers’ preferences on target level. Results show that the water resources carrying capacity of all areas have been gradually improved. Overall, the economic and social indexes present an oscillation pattern with a rising, falling, and rising trend simultaneously in the study period from 2004 to 2017. The water resource utilization index varies with the amount of precipitation and reaches its peak in 2010. The ecological environment index depicts a diminishing overall trend initially before reaching a turning point in 2014. Increasing the water resources utilization and controlling rapid population growth can improve the water resources carrying capacity. The AHP-FMADM can help decision-makers to determine management plans based on their preferences, and the results of the study may contribute towards improving water resources carrying capacity.

 

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代表论文介绍5                 

 

《Evolution analysis of water consumption and economic growth based on Decomposition-Decoupling Two-stage Method: A case study of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China》(Wu Qingsong, Zuo Qiting *, Ma Junxia, Zhang Zhizhuo, Jiang Long. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021)

       In this study, a Decomposition-Decoupling Two-stage (DDTS) approach is developed for evolution analysis of water consumption (WC) and economic growth (EG). The DDTS method can not only quantify driving effects of water use intensity (WUI), industrial structure (IS), economic income (EI) and population scale (PS) to WC, but also estimate the decoupling state (DS) between WC and EG as well as further identify its determinants. Then, a case study is conducted in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, and multiple differences among periods, districts, factors and industries are examined. Results disclose that: a) average contribution rates of EI, WUI, IS and PS factors to WC are 103.2%, -78.5%, -25.8% and 9.4%; b) the effect intensity of WUI and IS factors is obviously different among industries and districts, the ranking of the above two effects among industries is primary, secondary and tertiary; c) both LMDI and RLI models can be well applied to explore driving effects of WC’ determinants while the LMDI model presents more reasonable results; d) the DS has generally been maintained at an ideal level, WUI and IS factors advance the decoupling progress while EI and PS opposite. Findings can help effectively alleviate the contradiction and support the sustainable development between water resources and economic society.

 

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“新疆水资源”专栏文章

《水资源保护》2021年第2期

        

新疆水资源时空变化特征及适应性利用战略研究

新疆水资源开发利用的空间均衡分析

新疆水资源利用与产业发展关联研究

新疆多时间尺度干湿变化特征分析

地下水资源对新疆经济社会支撑作用的定量评价

塔里木河流域水资源-经济社会-生态环境耦合系统和谐程度量化分析

塔里木河流域水资源适应性利用能力评价及调控

塔里木河下游土地利用/覆被变化对生态输水的响应

基于Nerlove方法的塔里木河流域农业水资源配置模型

 

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 部分论文免费下载

  

1. 左其亭,韩淑颖,韩春辉,罗增良. 基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型研究框架[J]. 水利水电技术,2019, 50(8):52-57.点击全文免费下载 

12. 左其亭,韩春辉,马军霞,王鑫. 水资源空间均衡理论方法及应用研究框架[J]. 人民黄河,2019, 41(10):113-118 点击全文免费下载  

3. 左其亭, 韩春辉, 马军霞. 水资源空间均衡理论应用规则和量化方法[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 2019, (6): 50-58.点击全文免费下载 

4. Qiting Zuo, Xing Li, Lingang Hao*, Minghui Hao. Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land-Use and Ecosystem Services Valuation in the Belt and Road Initiative. Sustainability, 2020, 12, 6583: 1-21.点击全文免费下载    

5. 李佳伟, 左其亭*,马军霞. 新疆水资源−经济社会−生态环境时空演变特征分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 56(04): 591-599.点击全文免费下载

6. Qiting Zuo, Yixuan Diao*, Hao Lingang, Han Chunhui.  Comprehensive Evaluation of the Human-Water Harmony Relationship in Countries Along the "Belt and Road". Water Resources Management, 2020, 34(13), 4019-4035. 点击全文免费下载

7. Qiting Zuo, Yuxin Song, Haojie Wang*, Jialu Li, Chunhui Han. Spatial variations of extreme precipitation events and attribution analysis in the main water resource area of the Belt and Road Initiative. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2021. 1-20. 点击全文免费下载

8. 左其亭,李佳伟,马军霞,吴青松,郭佳航,李倩文.新疆水资源时空变化特征及适应性利用战略研究[J].水资源保护,2021,37(02):21-27. 点击全文免费下载

 

   

    

代表论文

1. 左其亭,韩淑颖,韩春辉,罗增良. 基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型研究框架[J]. 水利水电技术,2019, 50(8):52-57.    

2. 李佳伟, 左其亭*,马军霞. 新疆水资源−经济社会−生态环境时空演变特征分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2020, 56(04): 591-599.  

3. 左其亭,李佳伟,马军霞,吴青松,郭佳航,李倩文. 新疆水资源时空变化特征及适应性利用战略研究[J]. 水资源保护,2021,37(02):21-27.   

4. Zuo Qiting, Wu Qingsong, Yu Lei*, Li Yongping, Fan Yurui. Optimization of uncertain agricultural management considering the framework of water, energy and food [J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2021, 253, 106907.

5. Qiting Zuo, Jiahang Guo, Junxia Ma, Guotao Cui, Rongxue Yang, Lei Yu*. Assessment of regional-scale water resources carrying capacity based on fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making and scenario simulation [J]. Ecological Indicators, 2021, 130, 108034

6. Wen Li, Qiting Zuo*, Long Jiang, Zhizhuo Zhang, Junxia Ma, and Jiaoyang Wang. Evaluation of Regional Water Resources Management Performance and Analysis of the Influencing Factors: A Case Study in China [J]. Water 2022, 14(4), 574: 1-22.

   

 

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实时报道

1、于2019年提出基于遥感的新疆水资源适应性利用配置-调控模型。

2、于2020年提出新疆水资源−经济社会−生态环境时空演分析方法。

3、于2021年提出新疆水资源适应性利用战略框架。

4、于2021年提出水资源适应性利用能力评价及调控方法。

5、于2022年提出了流域水资源协同管理模式,从组织体系、内容体系、制度体系3方面构建了流域水资源协同管理体系。

6、于2022年提出了区域水平衡的基本原理,包括水量平衡原理、供需平衡原理、协同平衡原理及和谐平衡原理;构建了区域水平衡的理论体系。

 

关键词

水资源适应性利用adaptive utilization of water resources

水资源配置water resources allocation 

水资源调控water resources regulation

人水和谐human-water harmony

遥感技术Remote sensing technique

人水关系学human-water relationship discipline

人水关系human-water relationship

人水系统human-water system

水安全water security

 

 

 

 

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